UFC 121 Predictions: Special Halloween Edition

This Saturday, the UFC is putting on an amazing card of fights. And with Halloween rapidly approaching, the all important question is not “Can Cain Velasquez shock the world by defeating Brock Lesnar?” Nor is it, “Can Martin Kampmann pull off another huge upset by beating Jake Shields?” Those are important questions of course, but the pale in comparison to this one: “Which UFC 121 fighter is the scariest looking pirate?? ARRRR!!!”

Welcome to the UFC 121 Special Halloween Edition. Candidates for best pirate are:

1.) Gilbert Yvel (super-tatooed pirate pictured top-right.)

2.) Brock Lesnar (Viking pirate pictured bottom right.)

3.) Court McGee (black-bearded pirate pictured top-left.)

4.) Tom Lawlor (all around scruffy guy pictured bottom-left.)

While I’m at it, here are …

My UFC 121 Picks:

MAIN CARD:

Brock Lesnar (5-1) over Cain Velasquez (8-0)

Cain Velasquez is the more well rounded fighter of the two. Brock has more raw power in his strikes and he's probably the better wrestler of the two, but his stand-up is still pretty awful. The fight really comes down to whether Cain can keep it standing. I think he might for a round or maybe two. This is where Brock is supposed to fall victim to Cain’s superior striking. While Cain is a better technical striker than Brock, Lesnar has more power behind his punches and might just surprise everyone. In any event, Brock will survive early and be taking Cain down at will after second round. Cain is even good enough on the ground to hold keep Brock from finishing the fight quickly, but he won’t be able to hold him off indefinitely. Brock Lesnar wins by ground and pound TKO in the 4^th round.

Jake Shields (25-4) over Martin “The Hitman” Kampmann (17-3)

Strikeforce Champion and Elite XC Champion -- both of those titles were taken away by circumstances, not by but Jake losing them in a title fight. Shields is an absolute beast on a 5 year, 14 fight win streak. He's an elite wrestler and extremely good at sinking submissions. This is one of the most intriguing match-ups of the evening. Martin Kampmann is getting quite the reputation for being the underdog in high profile fights, and unexpectedly pulling out the upset. He spoiled Carlos Condit's UFC welcome party and coming in as an underdog he's beaten Thales Leites, Drew McFedries, Jorge Rivera and Paulo Thiago.

Shields definitely has the grappling and submissions advantage over just about anyone at 170 lbs, but Kampmann is no slouch in that department. Kampmann was a Thai Boxing champion in Denmark before his mixed martial arts career. Martin should have a significant advantage in the standup, but Shields has neutralized far more dangerous strikers than Kampmann – including the man who KO’d Kampann just one year ago, Paul Daley. Shields is coming off the biggest win of his career thus far over another lethal striker/wrestler Dan Henderson. If Shields wins, he gets a title shot against Georges St. Pierre. There is no word yet whether Kampmann will get a title shot with a victory, so it would probably depend on how impressive he is. It’s not going to matter anyways. Jake Shields wins this by 3^rd round submission.

Paulo Thiago (13-2) over Diego “The Nightmare” Sanchez (21-4)

Diego Sanchez used to be almost unstoppable. He was undefeated through his first 17 fights and he most certainly lived up to his nickname, “The Nightmare.” He’s one of those fighters with the complete package of skills. Wrestling, Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, striking and he’s good at all of them. But I think Diego is fading. The relentless pace and attack that made Diego Sanchez so dangerous has slowed. Meanwhile, Paulo Thiago is the hungrier, more dangerous fighter right now. He's probably Diego's equal in grappling and I’d say he hits a bit harder in the standup. Diego and Paulo are both coming off of disappointing losses. Nobody has ever stopped Diego – BJ Penn cut him Diego and that fight was stopped by the doctor, but Diego has never been knocked out nor submitted. I think Paulo gets it done by Unanimous Decision.

Matt “The Hammer” Hamill (9-2) over “The Huntington Beach Bad Boy” Tito Ortiz (15-7)

Classic student vs mentor match up, Tito was Matt Hamill’s coach on The Ultimate Fighter 3. Hamill was favored to win TUF, but was sidelined by injury. Tito Ortiz used to be an MMA god. He successfully defended the Light Heavyweight title 5 times – a mark which no other Light Heavyweight has reached to this day. But Tito has been plagued with injuries and he's just not the fighter he used to be.

Matt Hamill is one of those inspiring stores of overcoming adversity. Matt is completely deaf and has been all his life, but he's an extremely dangerous wrestler and striker. Ortiz is coming off a big loss and a disappointing withdrawal from coaching yet another season of The Ultimate Fighter due to injury. Matt Hamill was absolutely manhandled by Jon “Bones” Jones (just like everyone else Jon Jones has fought recently) but won the fight by a controversial disqualification. Matt bounced back with a win over Keith Jardine. Matt will beat Ortiz and probably any other Light Heavyweight that’s not in the top 10. Matt Hamill by second round TKO.

Brendon “The Hybrid” Shaub (6-1) over Gabriel “Napão” Gonzaga (11-5)

A very interesting match-up, this pits "The Ultimate Fighter runner up who could” against the guy with the most stunning and brutal knockout in MMA history. Shaub keeps proving everyone wrong and winning in against the odds. And Brendon isn’t just winning, he’s knocking guys out in the first round.

Gonzaga has been off and on ever since he dropped Mirko Cro-Cop with the nastiest head-kick I've ever seen. Gonzaga has consistently won against every non-elite fighter. This is a big step up for Shaub, but I think he’s ready for it. Brendon’s star is rising and this is his big moment to shine. This fight could definitely go either way but I think Shaub wins by knockout in round 3.

UNDERCARD ON SPIKE TV:

Court “The Crusher” McGee (12-1) over Ryan Jensen (15-6)

The most recent "The Ultimate Fighter" winner, Court McGee will be making his post TUF debut. Ryan Jensen has been around the UFC for awhile, racking up a mixed bag of wins and losses. Among all the small local fights in Utah, Court McGee has one big-time fight on his record -- a Unanimous Decision loss to the legendary Jeremy Horn (87-20), accounting for Court's only loss on record. That was three years ago. No shame in losing one to Jeremy Horn, so many other great fighters have as well, and he made a good fight of it. Court is a bit raw, but he gets the job done against a mid-level UFC veteran. I think McGee has this one by 2^nd round submission.

As for the rest:

Patrick “The Predator” Côté (13-6) over “Filthy” Tom Lawlor (6-3)

NON-TELEVISED UNDERCARD:

“Ninja” Daniel Roberts (10-1) over Mike “The Joker”Guymon (12-3)

Sam “Hands of Stone” Stout (15-6) over “Relentless” Paul Taylor (10-5)

“The Ox” Dong Yi Yang (9-0) over Chris Camozzi (13-3)

Gilbert “The Hurricane” Yvel (36-15) over Jon Madsen (6-0)

This should be a great night of fights! Happy Halloween everyone!

UFC 113 – Shogun Slays the Dragon, But Can He Break the The Iceman Curse?

UFC 113 has come and gone. It was a bitter-sweet evening of fights for me. I correctly predicted every fight winner on the main card up to the main event. Then Mauricio “Shogun” Rua caught the champion – and my favorite fighter – Lyoto Machida flush on the temple. For the first time ever, The Dragon was seriously hurt. After dropping the champion and following with a flurry of punches, the fight was over quick as you could blink. And now we have a new Light Heavyweight Champion in the UFC.

I was impressed with Shogun a long time ago when he dominated the ranks in Pride FC. But when he lost his first UFC fight to Griffin had me extremely puzzled. Was Maricio "Shogun" Rua more hype than substance? Could it be that the best 205 pound fighter from Pride FC was really this unimpressive? That would mean that Pride FC's 205 pound equivalent division was just vastly inferior to the UFC all along! Were all their amazing Light Heavyweight fighters just mediocre at best?

I'm glad that Shogun is back and a lot of those doubts are dispelled from my mind. I was sold on him after Machida vs Shogun 1. But on Saturday, after he knocked out Lyoto Machida in the first round, I was absolutely speechless! Very impressive Mr. Rua!

But can Shogun break a long-standing curse?

Lets look back in time for a moment. The date was May 26, 2007. Chuck “The Iceman” Liddell, one of the most dominant Light Heavyweight champions in UFC history, fought Quinton “Rampage” Jackson in his fifth title defense. Just one minute and 53 seconds into the first round, Rampage Jackson had dropped The Iceman, took his title and ended the Liddell era.

Chuck Liddell was a continuation of a noteworthy legacy in the UFC's 205 lbs divsion. The very first Light Heavyweight Champion, Frank Shamrock defended the title four times and only lost the title by leaving the UFC and having it stripped. Tito Ortiz succeeded Shamrock, and tallied an impressive reign of five title defenses. With four successful title defenses, Chuck Liddell was the continuation of a proud line of dominance at 205 pounds. He was also the last one.

After taking the title from Chuck Liddell, Rampage chalked up a mediocre five round decision win over Dan Henderson in his first title defense. Jackson went on to lose his title in his next fight against Forrest Griffin.

Forrest lost the title in his very first defense to Rashad Evans by technical knock out.

Rashad Evans got knocked out by Lyoto Machida in his very first title defense.

Lyoto Machida was handed a judges decision win over Shogun in their first fight -- a decision win that should have been a loss. And on Saturday, he was knocked out by Mauricio “Shogun” Rua at UFC 113.

As it stands right now, the UFC Light Heavyweight Title seems to be cursed. Maybe we can call it “The Iceman Curse.” Whether you’re superstition or not, it’s a simple fact that nobody seems to be able to hold onto that belt for very long.

In the next few days, Mauricio “Shogun” Rua will no doubt be lauded as the greatest 205 pound champion in UFC history. People will sound off about how Shogun will defend the title ten times and then retire. It seems to be standard procedure for a new champion who takes the title in such stunning fashion.

But let’s not forget, many people (myself included) also believed that Lyoto Machida would be first dominant champion since Chuck Liddell. Obviously, we couldn’t have been more wrong.

Shogun is an amazing fighter with an iron chin, incredible striking ability, a relentless pace and a strong ground game. He’s also only 28 years old, with plenty of fights left in him. He has all the attributes to break the curse and dominate the division.

Shogun is also the new champion of a division of scary fighters. I think he’ll handle the winner of Rashad vs. Rampage without much trouble, but both men are skilled enough to make a good fight of it. Neither man is going to give Shogun an easy win.

And after that, there are a lot of other dangerous guys moving into the title picture. Jonny “Bones” Jones, Forrest Griffin, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Thiago Silva, Ryan Bader and Randy Couture are all lurking about looking for a title shot.

And probably most significant of all, Anderson Silva might come calling for shot at Shogun’s title.

Can Shogun hang onto the most slippery belt in the UFC today? I think he’s the man to do it, but until he defends his title a couple times, you’ve got to wonder if The Iceman Curse is still in effect.

Could Anderson Silva One Day Hold Three Belts At the Same Time?

The day is May 8, 2010. After a grueling two rounds of striking and counterstriking, Mauricio "Shogun" Rua catches the champion. Lyoto Machida goes down hard. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua is proclaimed winner over Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida by third round knockout.

With Bruce Buffer making it official, "And new undisputed Light Heavyweight Champion of the world ..." Seven months of controversy ends, and the Shogun era begins.

That's just one of the things that absolutely must happen if my crazy future for Anderson Silva to happen.

And I'm already hedging my bets there. I've got Machida winning that fight by knockout.

But setting that aside let's wander a little further down this hypothetical future road. If The Dragon were to lose to Shogun in extremely convincing fashion, then nobody would be clamoring for a rubber-match fight.

Meanwhile, the UFC manages to put together the superfight fans have been clamoring for: Anderson Silva vs George St Pierre.

Brimming with confidence in his consensus best pound for pound figther in the world, Dana White will want this matchup to happen at Welterweight.

According to a recent interview, Anderson Silva is very interested in testing himself at Welterweight. As the former Shooto Champion at 168 lbs, "The Spider" can certainly make it at Welterweight.

And is there any Welterweight that fans would rather see Anderson Silva face than George? Absolutely not, it's GSP or nothing!

Of course it will be up to Dana White to make this a title fight -- a move that would be very good for pay per view sales. Good for sales + Good for publicity = Dana White will be all for it.

So what happens if Anderson Silva wins a Welterweight superfight with George St Pierre? He becomes the first ever champion to hold two titles in two weight divisions at the same time in the UFC.

Now back to our other story at Light Heavyweight. With Lyoto Machida left out in the cold with no title shot in his immediate future, who is the most compelling challenger to face Shogun next? You better believe it, Anderson Silva!

It reads a lot like a good novel. With Lyoto Machida defeated and left out of the title picture for the foreseeable future, Lyoto's best friend and steps up to defend his honor. Anderson Silva challenges Mauricio "Shogun" Rua for the the Light Heavyweight Championship.

If Anderson Silva wins that fight, he claims the triple crown -- becoming the first mixed martial arts fighter to ever hold three titles consecutively in the world best MMA promotion.

Since he can't possible keep up with title defenses for all three belts, he would have to vacate from two of them. Probably Welterweight and Middleweight.

Or he could retire from the sport completely. Nothing quite like going out with a bang, right?

Not a bad way to make your mark as the best fighter in the history of MMA Mr Spider!

Roy Nelson: The Frogfish That Ate the Lionfish

Sometimes you can just tell that an athlete is going to do great things just by looking at them. It's something about the way they carry themselves or the set of their eyes. There's an undeniable spark there and you can't help but feel it.

Roy Nelson is not one of those athletes. At 6' even, he's not particularly tall for a Heavyweight. He doesn't have muscles popping out all over the place. There's such a thing as an intimidating looking fat guy, and Roy Nelson isn't an example of it.

At Ultimate Fight Night 21, "Big Country" did it again. He went in against an opponent who could easily fit on a poster captioned: "This is what an MMA fighter is supposed to look like." Despite that fact, Nelson knocked out the physically impressive looking 6'11" 248 lbs Stefan Struve in 39 seconds.

It reminds me of something that happened at a local public aquarium where my wife worked a few years ago. One of the most interesting and intimidating looking creatures they had there was a Lionfish . With poisonous spines poking out in all directions and an aggressive disposition, you simply accepted that everything was going to stay out of this thing's way. And I must say, the lionfish just looked awesome.

In the same tank, there was another fish that was about the same size. It was a fairly hideous creature that I mistook for a painted rock the first time I saw it. As my wife informed me, this was a Frogfish . I never could get over how ugly the thing was, but I figured its natural camouflaging appearance would help it stay clear of the lionfish.

One day, when I was picking my wife up for work, I noticed the lionfish was gone. My wife informed me that the frogfish had swallowed the lionfish whole!

Roy Nelson is a lot like that frogfish and both Brendan Schaub and Stefan Struve were like the lionfish. To look at them, you'd have never imagined Roy Nelson would knock out both men in the very first round!

As fans, we look at him and we have a terrible time accepting that this squat fat man is one of the deadliest fighters on the planet. We can't imagine him beating top fighters at Heavyweight.

Roy Nelson has racked up a career record of 15 wins and 4 losses. Eight of those wins were by knockout. The only loss he has ever suffered by stoppage was to former UFC Heavyweight Champion, Andrei Arlovski. In a sport where undefeated records are close to non-existant, a stoppage loss to a fighter of that caliber is no great shame at all.

Roy Nelso was the two time defending IFL champion before ever coming to the UFC.

In short, Roy Nelson proved that notwithstanding his unintimidating appearance, he was a very dangerous man.

After two fights in the UFC, Roy Nelson has racked up the same result: First round knockout. Nobody in the UFC has made it to the second round yet!

But after winning The Ultimate Fighter 10: Heavyweights and two impressive victories in the octagon, I've got to wonder this: How many times does Roy Nelson have to prove fans wrong before they'll accept him for the elite fighter that he is?

It Begins

This blog is a long time in coming. After writing and commenting on Bleacher Report's MMA section for a long time now and hanging around in other MMA communities online, I'm finally deciding to take writing about MMA a little more seriously ... or perhaps I've decided to take my obsession with MMA to the next level. Is there a difference?

After going by Ed J Pickle McNasty III for well over a year, I changed my display name to my real name. It was a lovely pen name that I never figured would go anywhere, and I didn't care. But it's hard to be taken seriously when your name is a joke, right?

So much going on in the MMA world. "The fat kid who could," Roy Nelson is turning some heads with two straight first round knockouts. Shane Carwin is back in action and knocking out "the world's biggest loudmouth" Frank Mir. UFC 112 is almost upon us with it's two, "you seriously call this guy a title contender?" title fights.

Strikeforce is about to do their second CBS broadcast. The biggest shocker in the past two years: Alistair Overeem might actually defend his SF title!! I'm believing it when I see him in the cage.

That's all I got for now.

Young Guns' Sweep Completed: Retiring of the Old Guard at Heavyweight

by

Kevin Sampson

Correspondent Written on March 29, 2010

Don't like your poll? You can delete it.

Results - Author Poll

Which of these four men will be Champion in the end?

• Brock Lesnar 29.4%

• Shane Carwin 35.3%

• Cain Velasquez 18.5%

• Junior dos Santos 16.8%
• Total votes: 119

Who are the greatest heavyweights in MMA history?

Any list should include: Randy Couture, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Frank Mir, Mark Coleman, Kevin Randleman, Mirko “Cro-Cop” Filipović, Josh Barnett, Fedor Emelianenko, Bas Rutten, Mark Kerr, Dan Severn, Tim Sylvia, Andrei Arlovski and Ken Shamrock.

Some have faded into retirement, and some are still fighting today.

How many are legitimate contenders for the UFC Heavyweight title? None!

In contrast to every other division, the UFC heavyweight division has been completely cleaned out by newer, younger, and terrifyingly good fighters.

After UFC 111, the heavyweight division has just completed its total rebirth. Old familiar legends have been dropping like flies and new faces have taken over the division.

The first step was on April 21, 2007 at UFC 70. Coming in as a huge underdog, Gabriel Gonzaga delivered a crushing head kick to Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipović . After that day, Cro-Cop would never be the dominant fighter he once was.

Cro-Cop would put his career back together, and took yet another run at success in the UFC. Unfortunately for Mirko, Junior dos Santos was in the way, and Junior stopped his return to greatness dead in its tracks at UFC 103.

Nov. 15, 2008, at UFC 91, Brock Lesnar defeated legendary champion Randy Couture by TKO and took his Heavyweight Title. Couture tried to come back, but lost the very next fight to Antonio "Minotauro" Rodrigo Nogueira, effectively ending his heavyweight career in MMA.

Josh Barnett has effectively juiced his way to irrelevance. He might be great, but can he stay off the steroids long enough for it to matter? At this point, he UFC is going to be as interested in Barnett as a blood bank in interested in a 30 year heroine junkie.

Fedor Emelianenko is not a factor in the UFC title hunt for obvious reasons. He's not in the UFC, and I don't think he ever will be. That is by his own choice of course.

After beating Randy Couture at UFC 102, Nogueira was back in the title picture and looking to move a step closer to a shot at the belt.

At UFC 110, the always impressive legend Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira was dropped well out of title contention at the hands of Cain Velasquez with a vicious first round knockout.

Coming into UFC 111, only one legend from the past was clinging to legitimate title contention. Frank Mir had already been thoroughly beaten at UFC 100, but his loud mouth, trash-talking, and an impressive first round win against Cheick Kongo had him back in the hunt.

At UFC 111, Shane Carwin’s crushing TKO victory dropped the final legendary heavyweight form title contention.

Frank Mir’s loss to Carwin finished the sweeping out of the old guard. The Heavyweight Division is now ruled by four new faces:

Brock Lesnar

Shane Carwin

Cain Velasquez

Junior dos Santos

Which one will reign supreme as the undisputed UFC Heavyweight Champion?

Fear This: Shane Carwin Destroys Mir, Earns Title Fight with Brock Lesnar

by

Kevin Sampson

Correspondent Written on March 27, 2010

Don't like your poll? You can delete it.

Results - Author Poll

Who will win at UFC 116, Brock or Shane

• Shane Carwin 63.9%

• Brock Lesnar 36.1%
• Total votes: 61

After many months of speculation and hype, Shane Carwin has finally fought again.

This wasn't just any fight.

This was biggest fight of his life to date. Taking on the one and a half time UFC Heavyweight Champion is no small challenge (and yes, I'm counting his time as Interim Champion as 1/2).

This is the rededicated Frank Mir who went from pure submissions artist to knocking out Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Cheick Kongo in brutal fashion. This is the Frank Mir that desperately wanted to avenge his loss to Brock Lesnar.

All he had to do was get past Shane Carwin.

Well, it didn't exactly play out that way. After this one-sided beatdown, Mir is just going to have to wait.

To his credit, this is the longest fight of Carwin's career—and that's not saying much since he too didn't survive the very first round.

No shame in that Frank. Nobody has ever survived one round with "The Engineer."

The almost forgotten mass of hype seems to have been confirmed. Shane Carwin is the real deal! The man is a beast!

It was absolutely shocking to see, even though I said it would happen. Shane Carwin was grinding away at Frank Mir in the clinch. And then Shane got one of those sledgehammer fists free, and let his left hand fly with devastating results.

Mir was stunned . Several more of those crushing left hands and Mir crumpled to the floor, where Shane Carwin pounded out the victory. UFC fighters and fans alike got a resounding reminder that this man has the most dangerous hands in all of MMA.

This means we'll see a fresh face to challenge Brock Lesnar for the title at UFC 116 on July 3. Frank Mir already accounts for two-fifths of Brock Lesnar's career fights, so I'm glad we won't be seeing Brock Lesnar vs Frank Mir 3 in July.

Mir is a first-rate fighter, but he was manhandled by Brock twice already. Time to see another challenger with a different skill set. And Carwin should give Brock all he can handle!

Brock is faster and probably a slightly better wrestler than Shane Carwin. Still, the disparity in wrestling skill is much less significant than you see when comparing Brock Lesnar to Frank Mir.

Carwin has better hands than Brock with more dangerous knockout power. He has Brazilian Jiu Jitzu skills, which is something that Brock Lesnar has never given us any indication of in his fights.

It's impossible to say whether Brock or Shane is the stronger man. If I had to guess, I'd say Brock but how can we truly know for certain?


As for the other results from UFC 111:

Matt Riddle might be the first fighter to win by DQ that I can remember who was absolutely dominating the fight right up to the disqualifying blow by Greg Soto . Not much reason to complain about this result.

Jared Hamman ground out a convincing three round Unanimous Decision over Rodney Wallace.

Rousimar Palhares brings his tally of heel-hook submission wins to five. His latest victim was Tomasz Drwal . With five of his 11 total victories, I think we can safely guess what Palhares favorite move is.

Ricardo Almeida pulls out a somewhat unexpected win by rear-naked choke over Matt Brown .

We're going to be subjected to Nate Diaz' loud obnoxious mouth a whole lot in the near future, as the younger Diaz brother absolutely destroyed Rory Markham by ground and pound TKO in round one. Diaz has every right to be proud of this victory, but you just know that we're all going to want to duct-tape his mouth shut in the next few days.

Jim Miller squeezes out a razor close Unanimous Decision victory over Mark Bocek .

Jon Fitch wins by Unanimous Decision once again, adding Ben Saunders to his list of victims. That brings Fitch's UD tally to 12, and we should now be able to comfortably modify his name to Jon "UD" Fitch.

I love Jon Fitch, but I do wish he'd finish an opponent every now and again. He won in dominant fashion though, and hopefully this locks up a title shot for Fitch.

Batman returns! Kurt Pellegrino came, he saw, he choked Fabricio Camoes out in the second round. Slightly surprising ending as Caomes looked like the busier submissions fighter at the beginning of the fight.

And in the main event, George "Rush" St Pierre did to Dan Hardy exactly what everyone expected: He issued a non-stop beat-down to "The Outlaw" from start to finish. Props to Dan Hardy for actually surviving that brutal beating for a full five rounds!

Quite a night of fights!