How Do MMA Weight Classes Win Their Fights? Expectation vs. Reality
by Correspondent Written on October 31, 2009 
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What is your favorite Mixed Martial Arts Weight Division?
After reading a number of recent articles discussing the UFC heavyweight division, The Ultimate Fighter 10: Heavyweights, and the upcoming fight between Fedor Emelianenko and Brett Rogers, I noticed an interesting trend.
Mixed martial arts fans expect knockouts from heavyweights. Other weight classes have substantially lowered fan expectations for knockouts.
Meanwhile, lighter weight classes are expected to see lots of submissions and a higher number of fights go to the judges.
This made me very curious. How well do the respective weight classes live up to their presumed roles? If MMA fans are thinking accurately, we should see significantly more knockouts at heavyweight and far fewer at in the lighter weight classes.
It was a this point that the insane statistic geek inside me went berserk, took over my body for several hours, and pored over Web sites compiling data on the best MMA fighters from each weight class.
So who are the best MMA fighters ever? To keep it very simple, I used the numbers for every UFC and Pride FC title holder, both past and present. I think these clearly represent the best of the best MMA fighters sorted by weight class. Here’s what I found:
Heavyweight
(Mark Coleman, Maurice Smith, Randy Couture, Bas Rutten, Kevin Randleman, Josh Barnett, Ricco Rodriguez, Tim Sylvia, Frank Mir, Andrei Arlovski, Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira, Brock Lesnar, Fedor Emelianenko)
- Total Wins = 305
- Wins by Knockout = 88 (29%)
- Wins By Submission = 116 (38%)
- Wins by Decision = 101 (33%)
Light Heavyweight
(Frank Shamrock, Tito Ortiz, Randy Couture, Vitor Belfort, Chuck Liddell, Quinton Jackson, Forrest Griffin, Rashad Evans, Lyoto Machida, Wanderlei Silva, Dan Henderson)
- Total Wins = 225
- Wins by Knockout = 103 (46%)
- Wins by Submission = 44 (20%)
- Wins by Decision = 78 (35%)
Middleweight
(Dave Menne, Murilo Bustamante, Evan Tanner, Rich Franklin, Anderson Silva, Dan Henderson)
- Total Wins = 164
- Wins by Knockout = 60 (37%)
- Wins by Submission = 57 (35%)
- Wins by Decision = 47 (29%)
Welterweight
(Pat Miletich, Carlos Newton, Matt Hughes, BJ Penn, George St Pierre, Matt Serra. Note: The equivalent division did not exist in Pride FC.)
- Total Wins = 129
- Wins by Knockout = 35 (27%)
- Wins by Submission = 61 (47%)
- Wins by Decision = 33 (26%)
Lightweight
(Jens Pulver, Sean Sherk, BJ Penn, Takanori Gomi)
- Total Wins = 97
- Wins by Knockout: 36 (37%)
- Wins by Submission: 27 (28%)
- Wins by Decision: 34 (35%)
So do the weight classes within mixed martial arts live up to the expectations of their fans? No, they certainly do not!
Case in point, the best divisions to watch for knockout are light heavyweight, middleweight, and lightweight, in that order. Light heavyweight is clearly the king of the knockout. The divisions with the fewest knockouts were welterweight and heavyweight.
And which weight classes are the ones to watch for submissions? Apparently, welterweight and heavyweight are the kings of submissions. And light heavyweight is definitely not the division to watch if you love submissions victories.
What do we learn from this?
1. Unlike some other combat sports, mixed martial arts does not see significantly more knockouts in the heavier divisions.
2. The numbers are all over the map.
3. We should probably throw out all generalizations and expectations based upon weight class. After all, the numbers simply don’t add up.
So where do our expectations come from? Most likely from boxing.
To help demonstrate, this, I’ve compiled the numbers on all current champions, throwing in legendary boxers from the past for good measure. For simplicity sake, I’m not going to include all the weight classes (there’s too damn many of them):
BOXING
Heavyweight
(Nikolay Valuev, Vitali Klitschko, Wladimir Klitschko, Rocky Marciano, Muhammed Ali, Joe Lewis, Mike Tyson)
- Total Wins = 361
- Wins by Knockout = 293 (81%)
- Wins by Decision = 68 (19%)
Light Heavyweight
(Gabriel Campillo, Jean Pascal, Tavoris Cloud, Zsolt Erdei, Juergan Braehmer, Bernard Hopkins, Roy Jones Jr.)
- Total Wins = 230
- Wins by Knockout = 157 (68%)
- Wins by Decision = 73 (32%)
Middleweight
(Felix Sturm, Kelly Pavik, Sebastian Zbik, Sebastian Sylvester, Oscar De La Hoya)
- Total Wins = 166
- Wins by Knockout = 100 (60%)
- Wins by Decision = 66 (39%)
Welterweight
(Shane Mosley, Vyacheslav Senchenko, Andre Berto, Isaac Hlatshwayo, Miguel Cotto, Manny Pacquiao, Sugar Ray Leonard, Sugar Ray Robinson, Floyd Mayweather)
- Total Wins = 462
- Wins by Knockout = 310 (67%)
- Wins by Decision = 152 (33%)
Lightweight
(Juan Manuel Marquez, Paulus Moses, Miguel Acosta, Edwin Valero, Michael Katsidis, Roberto Duran, Benny Leonard, Tony Canzoneri, Henry Armstrong)
- Total Wins = 626
- Wins by Knockout = 404 (65%)
- Wins by Decision = 222 (35%)
In boxing, the heavyweight division is far and away the best place to watch for stunning knockouts, with as much as 21 percent more knockouts than other divisions. Mixed martial arts isn’t just different. It’s very nearly opposite from boxing in this trend.
These numbers probably also explain why the light heavyweight division is considered the most exciting division in MMA. More knockouts equals more happy fight fans.
So now you know.
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